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Order Flow Analytics (www.orderflowanalytics.com)

  #94 (permalink)

Austin, Texas
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 22 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 1 given, 13 received


Focustrader View Post
Paganini,

Glad to know you are doing good with OFA software. Do you mind posting a chart or two on ofa trades you took.

Don't you feel you are doing black box thing,..by using OFA tools? or does DB explain as to what their signal actually means in order-flow?

Thanks
Focustrader


Most of what OFA has is not proprietary nor black box. Once you go through the training you'll know.

The tracker is proprietary - i have a 11 years working experience as a software engineer so i knew exactly which part of his software is proprietary which isn't.

OFA's plot of the volume chart is unique (and no software does this, but the logic is CLEARLY explained in the training).

Not quite sure what the legal status of rebroadcasting/posting images from the chart is, so I won't post the images. However, one of the trades i took was at 8:40 pm tonight. It was simply a COT change (it shows -300 contracts and changing to +400 which is A LOT in overnight trading). I was originally short at 1303.25 and saw it move against me. Took a small loss at -2 ticks.

Now, the high of the day was 1304.25. And the ES closed near the high. The expectation from everyoe is that it wll drop over night. It should after an extended rise and practically the entire day was a strong move up. I went in on a responsive selling peeriod and saw the COT turning. Naturally i knew that i was wrong and took a quick -2 tick loss.

However, since we're at the day high (loss was 1303.75, high was 1304.25, 2 ticks away) Chances are really good that it will attempt break out.

Why? Not because it will break - it's beceause institutional investors want to get filled with retailer's stops. The chart shows about 500-600 contracts at teh bid/ask between 1303.50 and 1304.25. When the market finally broke the high, it shot up because there is no market depth overnight other than the limit sellers who are eager to short against those stops outs. The prices tick to 1307.50. My original target was 4 ticks but my ATM strategy has a 3 point target (i always manage it myself). Well, it hits it in 3 seconds after the break out. It was literally stops after stops.

Those 500-600 contracts at the bid at 1303.75-1304.25 ends up at 1305.50 and 1305.75 at the ask with ZERO trade at the bid (after hours). The data shows 8:46:14 to 8:46:16 as the trade period for that rotation yep, 3 seconds of stop out and shot up 3 points.


Everyone of those shorts as well as the market stop buy orders got stopped out because the market shoots up 3 points and falls back down through the range and now is below the day's high.

Total gain in 5 minutes: 2.50 points. Check out the spike on your chart at around 8:46 pm central time (big spike up, eh? Yup, institutional investors causing retailers to stop out to take their contracts and sell to their buy out orders). Much harder to do during day time but easily manipulated after hours at night.

Those stop outs? the cluster shows 1.75 ticks (or close to 2 points). Amazing, isn't it? I wonder how many ES traders uses 2 point stops... look around at the systems out there, most are using 2 points as a stop. And everyone who shorted (and remember, I DID SHORT but OFA tells me that i'm about to get nailed, so i took the small 2 tick loss and changed my position). Also, my tracker which was showing a positive 200 contracts for me was showing -140 when i exited. 340 contracts shifted after i entered the market in overnight is a lot of volume.

COT, etc. are not proprietary, it's just a measure of the number of traders in the rotation process. Again, all covered in the training.

The stuff that is proprietary are the tracker software (not the contract counting but the automation stop out and target out levels), the gold market depth alert signals, the volume pivots (algorithmic pivots) genreated by their server which is used as a potential targets area, are proprietary. The rest isn't. However, the way the volume charts are printed is unique - there is no fixed length of volume length (unlike Gomi or Market delta or time based or range bars, it's none of the above). The logic though is clearly explained in the training.

Maybe Big Mike can ask OFA to do a presentation - i know OFA has done several for Mirus and you can see it on their youtube.com channel:

OrderFlowAnalytics's Channel - YouTube

Their stop run one is particularly interesting. We see it all day long on those volume levels and stop out levels.

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