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Currency Futures

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  #707 (permalink)

Bala, PA, USA
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
monpere's Avatar
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,321 received

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Trading is not about predicting the markets.

uuuummmm yes it is.... and your next statement says that

It is about trying to take advantage of perceived pattern repetition based on the numerically significant statistical historical behavior and observed expectancy of those patterns, using appropriate money management based on that data.

No kidding... now look closer at the wave picture while thinking about what you said - monpere

My point is, for me to put any weight to that picture, you have to show 500 charts (historical) with that wave and price action, and show me that if I took all 500 trades (numerically significant), 350 out of those 500 (statistical) would have made money based on my money management. Or, taking all 500 of those trades, I would have only 100 winners but based on my money management I would have still made more money then I lost on the other 400 losers (expectancy).

But if you show me those 500 occurrences and tell me you could have predicted which ones were going to work and which ones were not, that is a pipe dream, that most traders come to realize sooner or later. Now, when you show me a couple of cherry picked pictures that happen to work, I say even the clock on the wall that doesn't work is right twice a day. I'm not saying the method in the picture works or not, I'm just saying, most likely it cannot predict the market. That is all I see in this thread, people trying to predict the market. But if you are convinced convinced otherwise, then cool, I would not debate any method that increases the amount in anyone's trading account.

Last edited by monpere; December 4th, 2011 at 12:45 PM.
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