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Has anyone ever heard of Felton Trading? (www.feltontrading.com)

  #215 (permalink)

Vancouver, BC
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/CQG and Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: ES
 
exiledgoblin's Avatar
 
Posts: 66 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 6 given, 15 received

Seems everyone missed the point of my questions. I'll try to be clearer.

I assume that there are no magic indicators. I assume that much of the success of the Felton Trading room is about Roger Felton (I clearly said as much). So I asked questions precisely to see if its possible to determine a) just how much is attributable to the driver of the car (to use Roger's analogy) and how much to the car (DivergencePro software) and more to the point b) how likely is it that a serious dedicated student can learn what Roger knows and is trying to pass on to his students. The point of all this is to assess the connection between trading education and trading success.

Having been a college professor for many years I can say that if most of my students failed to attain appropriate levels of knowledge after being in my courses and I insisted that the failure was always with the students because they are lazy and lacking dedication or motivation I would have been fired from my job.

So my question remains: how many of Roger's students graduate into successful traders? If the answer is "very few" the the inescapable conclusion seems to be that Roger's program is a lottery. The message seems to be as follows: The indicators might help. You might pick up enough skill from Roger but most likely you will not. If you don't its not the car (indicators) and its not the driving instructor (Roger). Its you." If its true that its highly improbable (by actual historical stats) that you will successfully learn to trade then in my view honesty should compel us to make that clear up front. If we know that the odds are that people are wasting money and time buying services from us then we should make sure that they know that they are playing a lottery.

Caveat emptor!!


rogerf View Post
It appears The Seeker actually gets it...success doesn't come in a can. Good software can help a lot, but it's only as good as the trader behind it pushing the buttons.

Let's assume you're designing a trading method. You like trading counter-trend so you look for divergences. In a single day, on a single chart, you get 60 divergence signals...all shapes and sizes. 40 are losers, 10 have some profit potential and 10 become runners. Taking all signals, you would lose. So you spend a few years studying divergence and you begin to get a good idea of what common characteristics make a great signal. But in order to identify greatness, you must look at form, volatility, momentum, volume and market condition. Then you must look at what is happening on 2 or 3 other larger timeframe charts of various types. Now you want to make sure you avoid OB or OS areas as well as areas of strong S & R. You need to be able to instantly gauge trend strength, channel width and slopes. Over the years of study, you create some excellent indicators on your own that perform very well in helping to identify high probability areas of market reversal...some things nobody has ever thought of before. Cool huh?

Well, now you try to trade it and you find that after a short time you brain is toast. Measuring this, watching that, calculating these and anticipating that...pretty soon you're mentally fatigued and making all sorts of mistakes. Even with terrific signals with tons of profit potential, I can easily show you how to lose on practically every one. No system is worth a dime if you don't know how to manage trades and control risk.

About this time you realize that you're missing many great opportunities to go with the trends. So you hit the drawing board and develop some of the best "with trend" entries you've ever seen...but you also get a lot of trash trades, too. A few years of extensive testing and some proprietary indicator development and you have some super filters to help idenitfy those goldmine trades. But, now there's double the things that you need to monitor to find the good stuff. You end up with about a dozen different signals and you have the means of identifying the best of the best. Your entries are 100% mechanical and the vast majority have good to high profit potential. Your ship has finally come in, right? Not so fast....

Today's markets are complicated and it takes a sophisticated system to stand any chance of lasting success. The old days of pulling daily profits with a pair of crossover moving averages are long gone. Sophistication can deliver tremendous power and accuracy but it can also require complexity. Most traders struggle to keep "all the plates spinning", so to speak. It's time to start coding.

Whether you do it yourself or hire the best talent you can find, your system must be coded before you wind up broke or in a padded cell. My system has taken nearly two years of coding...8 to 10 hours a day...6 to 7 days a week. But the result was worth every minute and every penny invested...but it's just a tool, not a ticket to vast riches. I'm still the operator. I make the final decision. And I must manage every trade myself because trade management is where computers always get stupid.

My car is a wonderful machine. With it, I can go anywhere there's a road. But no matter how many times I go to the store, my car still doesn't know the way. It could be programmed, but now you're talking complexity. If you want to get there without crashing into someone else, you're talking even more complexity. You want it to be able to take you places on icy roads, still more complexity. But why all the work and expense??? Let the car do what it does best, and you do what humans do best. Same for coded trading systems.

Let computers do their job...you can't begin to compete. And computers can't compete with you in Trade Management because they are always trying to apply the "cookie cutter" approach. They can't think.

The point is, if you're going to be a trader, then trade. Stop expecting programs and indicators to do everything for you. They are tools to be used in the hands of skilled traders who know how to manage trades like a pro. That takes training and not every trader gets it because trade management requires mental mastery (including patience, discipline and unshakable confidence). If you're looking for the Holy Grail, you'll find it between your ears.

Like all educators, I've had my share of students that failed. But it wasn't because the system failed and it wasn't because I failed to be there with professional mentorship anytime they asked for it. They failed because they lacked the ability to overcome the mental demons that all traders must master. This is the main motivation for hiring a very talented PhD in Psychology (who understands the mental side of trading) to help give traders the best chance at lasting success. They're not cheap, but I'll gladly foot the bill if it helps as much as I suspect it will.


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