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Has anyone ever heard of Felton Trading? (www.feltontrading.com)

  #212 (permalink)

Victoria, TX
 
Trading Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus Futrues, Zen-Fire, IQFeed, Kinetick
Favorite Futures: 6E, CL, GC
 
rogerf's Avatar
 
Posts: 132 since Apr 2010


TheSeeker View Post
I believe the numbers will be low, no matter how good Roger's room is. Trading is harder than most professions. Since it is the lure of easy and fast money that draws most people to trading, not many will be ready to put in the effort to make it in this tough game, so I don't think this will be a good indicator.


It's probably more Roger's skill than the indicator. It's his skill combined with the indicators that I'm most interested in. There are no magical indicators, no magical indicator settings and there never will be.

It appears The Seeker actually gets it...success doesn't come in a can. Good software can help a lot, but it's only as good as the trader behind it pushing the buttons.

Let's assume you're designing a trading method. You like trading counter-trend so you look for divergences. In a single day, on a single chart, you get 60 divergence signals...all shapes and sizes. 40 are losers, 10 have some profit potential and 10 become runners. Taking all signals, you would lose. So you spend a few years studying divergence and you begin to get a good idea of what common characteristics make a great signal. But in order to identify greatness, you must look at form, volatility, momentum, volume and market condition. Then you must look at what is happening on 2 or 3 other larger timeframe charts of various types. Now you want to make sure you avoid OB or OS areas as well as areas of strong S & R. You need to be able to instantly gauge trend strength, channel width and slopes. Over the years of study, you create some excellent indicators on your own that perform very well in helping to identify high probability areas of market reversal...some things nobody has ever thought of before. Cool huh?

Well, now you try to trade it and you find that after a short time you brain is toast. Measuring this, watching that, calculating these and anticipating that...pretty soon you're mentally fatigued and making all sorts of mistakes. Even with terrific signals with tons of profit potential, I can easily show you how to lose on practically every one. No system is worth a dime if you don't know how to manage trades and control risk.

About this time you realize that you're missing many great opportunities to go with the trends. So you hit the drawing board and develop some of the best "with trend" entries you've ever seen...but you also get a lot of trash trades, too. A few years of extensive testing and some proprietary indicator development and you have some super filters to help idenitfy those goldmine trades. But, now there's double the things that you need to monitor to find the good stuff. You end up with about a dozen different signals and you have the means of identifying the best of the best. Your entries are 100% mechanical and the vast majority have good to high profit potential. Your ship has finally come in, right? Not so fast....

Today's markets are complicated and it takes a sophisticated system to stand any chance of lasting success. The old days of pulling daily profits with a pair of crossover moving averages are long gone. Sophistication can deliver tremendous power and accuracy but it can also require complexity. Most traders struggle to keep "all the plates spinning", so to speak. It's time to start coding.

Whether you do it yourself or hire the best talent you can find, your system must be coded before you wind up broke or in a padded cell. My system has taken nearly two years of coding...8 to 10 hours a day...6 to 7 days a week. But the result was worth every minute and every penny invested...but it's just a tool, not a ticket to vast riches. I'm still the operator. I make the final decision. And I must manage every trade myself because trade management is where computers always get stupid.

My car is a wonderful machine. With it, I can go anywhere there's a road. But no matter how many times I go to the store, my car still doesn't know the way. It could be programmed, but now you're talking complexity. If you want to get there without crashing into someone else, you're talking even more complexity. You want it to be able to take you places on icy roads, still more complexity. But why all the work and expense??? Let the car do what it does best, and you do what humans do best. Same for coded trading systems.

Let computers do their job...you can't begin to compete. And computers can't compete with you in Trade Management because they are always trying to apply the "cookie cutter" approach. They can't think.

The point is, if you're going to be a trader, then trade. Stop expecting programs and indicators to do everything for you. They are tools to be used in the hands of skilled traders who know how to manage trades like a pro. That takes training and not every trader gets it because trade management requires mental mastery (including patience, discipline and unshakable confidence). If you're looking for the Holy Grail, you'll find it between your ears.

Like all educators, I've had my share of students that failed. But it wasn't because the system failed and it wasn't because I failed to be there with professional mentorship anytime they asked for it. They failed because they lacked the ability to overcome the mental demons that all traders must master. This is the main motivation for hiring a very talented PhD in Psychology (who understands the mental side of trading) to help give traders the best chance at lasting success. They're not cheap, but I'll gladly foot the bill if it helps as much as I suspect it will.


Last edited by rogerf; November 29th, 2011 at 04:43 PM.
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