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  #509 (permalink)

Dartmouth NS
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MC, MC.Net, NT, TWS
Broker/Data: IB / IQFeed / Kids
Favorite Futures: Forex, stocks
bnichols's Avatar
Posts: 638 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 460 received

Short the spot currency for the moment at 1.37205. If it continues to break south (i.e., below 1.3700) I will expect 1.3600.

ETA: since US stock markets gapped down on open, also expect an attempt by EUR to retrace in the first 30 minutes to1 hour or so :-/ In the meantime active ATM strat is making that happy ka-ching sound.

ETA: will take first 1/4 position off at 1.36870 (33 pips) if price makes it that far. Micro retraces unnerving, probably 50% out if retrace break above 1.37025
ETA: Price trying to break 1.37025 upward once......twice......I'll be 50% out at 1.37055 (I'd be all out at 1.37172)

ETA: Whew. 1.37025 held, missed trailing stop by 1/2 pip and now back to happy ka-ching sound (auto 15 pip trailing stop). but still bouncing off S/R at 1.36870 (first 1/4 profit target if touched), retracing back to 1.37025 (1.3700 in psych terms) hopefully with less enthusiasm going by the upward wicks on the 200 tick bars but 50% trail now at 1.37035.

ETA: 10:09:30 EST 2nd test of 1.3700 resistance. 50% risk off now....but back in 100% by adding 50% position back immediately at 1.3702 when S/R in fact held, finger on the Bail button, first profit target 50% position at 1.36870. EUR again lock step with DOW, not sure about S&P. Momentum approaching zero on 200 and 600 tick charts during this consolidation. Waiting for break below 1.36870.

ETA: 1/2 position off when price wicked through support at 1.36895 at 10:17:22 EST so far just kicking the tires. In terms of DOW, EUR 1.3690 appears to correlate with 11399.3, correlation still positive + high. Moved 50% trail to 1.3700. New resistance at 1.3695....broken...50% off at trail......retesting resistance at 1.3702/00....DOW testing 11422......1/4 position back on at 1.3701 w/ -3 pip stop. (total 3/4 position now, average entry creeping down :-/).

ETA: 100% out at 1.3704, waiting for setup on 1800 tick chart at what might be top of first retrace in downtrend, if so perhaps at or before 1.3710/1.37175. DOW testing resistance at 11443.4. EUR now above support at 1.37025 but no enthusiasm to go higher at the surprise we're bouncing around at 1.3700

ETA: experimental limit sell at 1.37025.....accepted.... -8 pip initial stop could be expensive :-/ NT needs better (i.e., easy, reliable one click) price range scaling.....fighting it causes me to take eye off the ball :-( :-( :-(

ETA: initial stop at 1.3705 (-2.5 pips). EUR / DOW correlation broken at the moment, or more likely EUR leading DOW.

ETA: all out at stop. Darn. No idea which way price is going (i.e., can't assign probability) so waiting. If down, DOW needs to break 11398 from above, EUR 1.3695 (which means it has to break down through 1.37025 with some vigor first). If this is a retrace it has become complex.

ETA: DOW gaps down....EUR head fakes down....

ETA: China news -- weakness "therefore" oil down

ETA: DOW continuing lower, EUR dragging heels

ETA: Fighting with freeeeking NT price scaling but think I'm in long at 1.3710...more Slovak today passed. Deja vu all over again. Think my stop is more or less break even but will get back when I get NT vertical axis fixed. There we go, just in time to be stopped out at +2 pips.

ETA: Waiting...

ETA: faded bounce with 50% position at 1.37115 -2 pip stop....suicide in the making...stopped out. Waiting a little longer this time (I don't know.....maybe wait for a signal this time :-/). 4 cups of coffee in the last hour too many I'm starting to think.

ETA: in long at 1.3719 +2 pip (break even +) stop. Very low prob entry.

ETA: no surprise resistance around 1.3733, first 50% target at pivot (1.3747). 100% trail at more chance taking. Sometimes still forget it's what you can lose, never what you can gain.

ETA: stopped out. Looking for possible new long, 200 and 600 tick charts trending up, minimal momentum.

ETA: in long at 1.3729 -2 pip initial stop. The rule I'm ignoring is "never ever enter long just below a major resistance level" (1.3730). Last cup of coffee for a while. Twiddling thumbs while waiting to move stop......wondering if one beta blocker is good are 2 better?

ETA: trail at +3 pips (1.3732). Trend up on 200 and 600 tick charts for a while now, just turned up on 1800 tick chart. Based on stochs stop probably too close to price.

ETA: stopped out. Question is whether resistance at 1.3733 is going to hold. Guess no so long limit entry at 1.3733. May still be making mistakes (mainly trying to trade consolidation--need to learn the art of accumulation) but much calmer about it.

ETA: about to be stopped out at -4.5 pips. One more stupid move and I'm done for the day. Not firing on all cylinders--just noticed Euro markets closed a while ago :-( Expect slower movement, still no clue which way price is headed if any. Trail at +1 pip. Stopped out. Don't know whether to call that a mistake or not so assigning it 1/2 stupid point. Now looking for short trade, entry at 1.3733, probably -5 pip initial stop, first (50% position) target at 1.37175.

ETA: in and almost immediately stopped out. Ahead on pips but overdrawn on stupid so that's all from here for now!

ETA: well.....can't dance......may paper trade for a while :-/ In short at 1.37295 +2 pip stop on paper. Initial stop now1.3740 (-10.5)--I tell myself I can do that because I know I shouldn't and it's "only" paper. In the real world should be taking the dog for a walk. 200 tick tending down but stoch peak complex--meaning a 2 banger so far (2 crossings of %K and %D above 55), could go up or down with some enthusiasm if price makes up its mind. 200 tick stock climbing again, 600 tick stoch above 80, 1800 bottoming. Indecision is strong in this one but doesn't bode well for shorts at this second. Lots of top wicks, otherwise candles not really indicative in any time frame IMO. 600 and 1800 are saying "go long my son and may the force be with you since you'd be buying into major resistance yet again." Split the difference by moving trail to +2 pips (1.37275)

ETA: in the kitchen when stopped out. More things change the more they stay the same-- back to having no clue what price is going to do but went long at 1.3725 for a rubber band trade on 600 tick chart (wrt 50SMA) and another run at resistance at 1.3733, first retrace trade in uptrend on 1800 tick chart. Wham--as expected momentum goes over the horse's head when price refuses at 1.37330. Waiting for another run at resistance on short lead up, still long but trail at +2 pips (entry + 2 pips, or 1.37275). Time is 12:42:02 EST.

ETA: at 12:45:31 price on 2nd run at resistance with maxed stochs, except for 1800 tick chart. Remains to be seen what happens since stochs need to max & stay maxed at the beginning of an up-trend.

ETA: Looking good, first real hurdle may be pivot at 1.37457 but bids getting cold feet around 1.3740. Trail at 1.3734 (+9.5 pips), now at 1.3732 to let support at 1.3733 take the impact of the retrace if necessary, assuming 1.3733 still exists. Here "support is Murrey Math 4/8 on the 200 and 600 tick charts, 2/8 on the 1800.

ETA: assuming price breaks 1.3740 plan to take 1/4 position off at pivot and another 1/4 at Murrey Math 5/8 1.3748 on 200 tick chart.

ETA: first target hit, trail at 1.37355

ETA: second target almost touched at 12:59:58 EST.....200 tick stoch bottoming so may be hit on next run but 100% trail now at 1.3739 ...... stopped out--paper trade over, up some pips. Coincidentally price playing cat & mouse again. Wistful for the good old days--the day before yesterday?--when price picked a direction and stuck to it for more than 30 minutes, although to the untrained eye that last pullback sort of looks like a first retrace in an uptrend on the 1800 tick chart. Wish I'd shifted focus from 200 to 1800 a little sooner. In way late 1/2 position long at 1.37555, right at an S/R level, 1st target 1.37635 only because I'm paper trading , otherwise would wait for the next pullback. As it is plan to add the 2nd half of position at bottom of retrace, presumably >= 1.3748, if it occurs. Full stop set to 1.3747 but may back it off a tad (being paper).

ETA: 1.3750 may be bottom of retrace, if this is second wave of uptrend (expect it to push higher once more at least if so) but remains to be seen. In fact if 1.3748 breaks will be out with 8.5 pip loss. Mistake was knee-jerk impulse buy on recognition of potential uptrend, before an actual signal. Shouldn't even trade paper if one's wits aren't about one, breeds bad habits. If I survive the trade with any profit it will have been sheer luck--nothing to feel good about. As it is, price took off upward and hit the first target at1.3763 Suppose luck pays for champagne just like skill, but in any event enough self-flagellation :-/

ETA: trail at 1.3762. No target picked yet--still reeling over my good fortune.

ETA: quick guess: I'll take off 1/4 full position (1/2 of remaining position) at 1.3793 (MM 4/8 on 1800 tick chart) or trail out completely (trail still at 1.3762). This is greed since next target for 1/4 should be 1.37785. With both right and left shoulder angels now duking it out compromise by moving trail to 1.3770 hopefully to shut them up.

ETA: finally, looking at 1800 tick chart trail back to 1.3762, betting there is going to be a 2nd retrace and subsequent 3rd leg up to 1.37935 (1.3800 in psych terms). My 2 angels (Greed & Fear) may have strong opinions that they're more than happy to share but they aren't necessarily good traders. To speed things up will now take my eyes off the action for a second, go to the kitchen to make a cup of tea.........

ETA: stopped out at trail at 14:02:33 EST. Looking to go long around here but no lower than 1.3756 (or all bets are off) for run up to 1.3800/1.3790.

ETA: long at 1.3762 with - 2 pip stop.

ETA: .....turning into a bit of a complex retrace :-( Still long by the skin of my teeth. Stochs more or less well positioned but momentum could be better and not surprised if stopped on this first attempt to pick the bottom of the 2nd retrace, if that's what it turns out to be.

ETA: Ka-ching at 14:17:50 :0) (Scared the daylights out of me. ATM thinks I should be at break even + 2 pips, apparently). Still weak but price staggered in the right direction. Overrode the ATM trail to put it back at -2 pips (initial stop) based on stochs--technically not a mistake IMO. Will let the ATM have its way with the trail if price breaks out to the upside from here, which it appears to be trying to do. Stochs maxing out, not a bad thing but makes them useless. Now based on price action alone put trail back at +2 pips. If price breaks below 1.3764 do not want to be in this trade. Stopped out!

ETA: Flat after trail taken out at +2 pips waiting for another entry.

ETA: In long at 1.3764 with -2 pip stop based on 1800 and 600 tick stochs. 200 tick stochs indicate stop is too close to price, becoming complex (crossing over a couple of times above 80) but all I'm willing to spend is 2 pips--indicating I probably should have waited.

ETA: ATM moved trail to +2 and this time I'll let it. We're still in the woods until price clears 1.37755, preferably 1.37785

ETA: at 14:46:00 200 & 600 tick chart momentum looking up, and 1800 tick momentum positive and green 1 bar. Price 1.37730 and rising. Trail now at 1.3770. Now ATM is controlling it.....ka-ching, ka-ching. This ATM strat maintains trail at best price minus 11 pips, so paused at 1.3783 while price figures out what to do at MM 7/8 on 200 tick chart (1.37865)

ETA: backed trail off to 1.3778 (6/8 on 200) hoping we're starting to feel the gravitational pull of 1.3790/1.3800. 200 tick stoch may take us to 1.3790 if they survive 1.3785 but 1800 and 600 stochs suggest we're in for a retrace at that point. Momentum is positive on all 3 charts but showing a lot of hesitation. Price seems to be saying "I may go to 1.3790 but I won't like it". Wall of worry.

ETA: An hour before US stock market close keeping an eye on the indices for profit taking that may feed through to the USD, DX and hence EUR, but don't really expect much until tomorrow.

ETA: price perched on MM 7/8 1.37865 200 tick chart catching its breath. Must be a tough climb.

ETA: 15:06:46 target at 1.3790 hit. Now what. Looks like more buying on the DOW, which is approaching yesterday's close. Tough call. Maybe in long after a pullback if one occurs and whatever it amounts to, hope of 1.38255 target before 16:00 EST most optimistic, 1.3800+ more likely. Not considering a contrary (short) trade at the moment.

ETA: In long at 1.37955 stop 1.37915, target 1.38010ish, now firm at 1.38095. Low prob trade (took it partly because I'm paper trading, not that that's any excuse). That said, technicals are improving rapidly. That said, stopped out

ETA: DOW is dropping on bad news affecting Kroger. Wonder how much of a catalyst EUR needs to reverse at this point. No longer bullish but that won't stop a long trade if that's what price decides. In the meantime, retrace off 1.3790 has started as feared earlier. If it is a retrace 600 and 200 tick stoch are getting in position for a bottom, waiting for 1800 stoch to catch up. Too bad at first glance aggressive reversals from up- to downtrend look like uptrend retrace bottoms.

ETA: long at 1.3783 looking for 10 pips, -6 pip initial stop (i.e. not counting on a stop except in a catastrophe, assuming when scalping use targets only to max profit), looking for 10 pips (1.37935) based on 600 & 1800 tick chart stochs and improving (well...non-negative) momentum. Ignoring warnings on 200 tick chart. Mostly expect price can't resist retesting 1.3793--right now not much evidence it will.

ETA: trail moved to +2 pips. Based on price action 1.3793 is now or never IMO.

ETA: Made our 10 pips on a price spike at 15:38:55 before price collapses and makes another run--don't care because I'm flat. Content to watch other traders battle it back up for 3 or 4 pips (or whatever the pros make in the back and forth). Time to take the long suffering dog for a walk.

ETA: the thought provoking part is looking at today's chart in hindsight (what non-traders do) and noting if I'd simply gone long at 10:22 EST this morning and sold at NY close I could have made 100 pips without lifting a finger, instead of fighting tooth and nail for 86 half on paper, including the prior move down. They say in a trend everybody's a genius but as usual after a day like today I don't feel so smart.

Last edited by bnichols; October 13th, 2011 at 04:13 PM.
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