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  #23 (permalink)

Elite Member
New York City, NY/USA
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: 6E, ZN, CL
Posts: 121 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 74 received

yeahhhhh NO.

This post is sounding more and more like a retail trader whom is never going to manage real money.

To have a high win rate; the reward to risk has to be inverted. This is what most retail traders do, however to make money in this profession; you have to think about doing things that seem hard and are not what most retail traders are doing.

The best of the best of the best hope every year to net 24-36% on their capitol. And this is when they KNOW that in the end of this games they can only HOPE to be right 50% of the time.

I dont give a rats ass on the system one chooses to use; in the long and short it will be a 50-50 win rate. What makes them money is that their winners are bigger then their losers....hence an advantaged risk reward. All the real traders know their is no intelligent secret that exists regarding trading...except one.....IN THE END YOU WILL BE 50-50, so you better believe you need to focus on advantaged risk reward.

Secondly, to not control the number of events in a trading day (number of trades) you are creating some half ass risk profile. Controlling ones risk is numero uno...not preservation of capitol. Preservation of capitol DOES NOT mean holding onto what ya got in the account...if that is the case then just dont trade a cent and you will have a perfect record of preservation of capitol.

Let me make my bullet points and then propose a challenge:
1. If there were ANY real advantage to exist in "reading markets" then big money would have found it and exploited the edge till the market itself no longer existed. Hello quant systems!!!
2. Risk profile and risk to reward models is the SECRET. Then allowing ones advantaged model to play enough events to pan out the 50/50.
3. Retail does not make money! Trading a retail style = retail trader = no money.
4. Show me the first millionaire whom learned to trade "buying a system online"

lets us both create a live account with 5grand and use broker statements to see whom is managing/trading their account more successfully. We can start now and end it 12/31/11.

This will prove that by not focusing on the real man behind the curtain; one is doomed for failure.

P.S. My nameless mentor made money buy throwing a nerf dart at the monitor and based on where it landed he bought/sold the open using an advantaged risk/reward model. And it made money consistently....

point is....there is not intelligent way to analyze the markets that will tell ya anything. Its gambling, so one can only prevail using gambling techniques.....hmmmmm advantaged risk reward.

Note...that style impresses the one trade a day montra!

Know what your risk is always and that does not mean how much dam money one is risking on a trade or daily max losses.

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