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  #95 (permalink)

 Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
Posts: 2,929 since Nov 2010
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bobbyacim View Post
Please don't think I am feeling sorry for myself for what I am about to say;

I started " ten thousand in education and still not profitable" with a quote of a famous trader who has been banned on BIG Mikes Forum (perhaps for good reasons) This trader goes by the handle "TRO" and he once said
"Market movements are random, prove it to yourself; place a line anywhere and eventually price will touch it"

Then I started this thread and changed my quote to reflect my optimism. Recently I have had a MAJOR failure, And coincidently saw BIG MIKES POST called
"Are all lines on your chart random?"

Maybe TRO was RIGHT AFTER ALL, and ironically the person who banned him, just proved him right with this experiment......

You should go back to that thread and have a think what it's really about. It does not prove that market movements are random. To me, it's all about confirmation bias. Whether it's Horizontal lines, market profile, squiggly indicators - you often see what you want to see and read meaning into the random.

There's an important piece of the puzzle that you are missing and will always miss when you look to define the market by any objective analysis technique.

The fact is - the markets are a casino. People with a lot of money are dicking around with it. It IS an auction but it is not a purely supply/demand driven auction. Or rather, the supply and demand isn't coming along for reasons related to value. It is not a pure auction. Simply put - people are regularly & intentionally pulling the pants of retail traders down and spanking them on the a$$ over & over & over again.

They know where you get in. They know how much risk you are willing to put into a trade. They know where clusters of traders will enter. They know how to shake people out.

I think it is fantastic to have some high-level view of where the market is, how it is structured and where it will go to. FT71 uses MP. Other people frame it in different ways. Still - you have to understand it's all a game and you have to understand when you are being suckered in short term if you want to make a go of day trading...


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