Anyone know of this service- newfuturestrading.com | Trading Reviews and Vendors


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Anyone know of this service- newfuturestrading.com

  #29 (permalink)

Trading Apprentice
Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Currency Futures, Forex
 
Posts: 29 since Jan 2011
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josh View Post
But except in the case of a black box, completely hands off, system where psychology is not a factor at all, any trading system's expectancy is based on discretionary decision-making by the trader, which is very much related to psychology. Thus, except for a black box system, which is not really trading at all, expectancy is most definitely related to "trading psychology." This is why even a very mechanical system can have varying levels of success depending on who trades it. At least, the logic makes sense to me that way. Would you disagree?

I would agree with this and so would Ed Seykota who says something to the effect that systems don't need to be changed but a trader needs to find a system for him. Psychology definitely plays a role in determing a system's success when its not fully automated and even when it is blackbox *assuming the trader looks at his P&L every once in a while *

But I believe it only plays a role when someoen has determined their system has a positive expectancy exploiting some real edge.

I guess I'm referring more to the case where a trader comes up with a "system" and starts to trade it lets say the system is some combination of oscillators, MAs etc for entries and exits. The system might have shit expectancy but the trader is just told to stick with it and be disciplined. When in fact none of these things will do anything for him. Because the system itself is shit.

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