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smd-trading.de looks great on paper

  #23 (permalink)

 Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
Bangkok
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,929 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 806 given, 10,141 received


ScottReynolds View Post
Hello Pete,

This thread caught my eye since I have been following the SMD website for awhile now. And, in fact, I found this thread through the vendor's marketing email just as mentioned in this thread. I have not traded this system yet nor am I affiliated with this website but I take issue with some of the comments here.

First, I cannot find on the vendor's website any statement that they do not trade the system. The only thing I can think of is that you are misinterpreting their disclaimer.

The disclaimer clearly states that all results published on their site are hypothetical, that they are simulated and not the results of trading real money. How would you propose I interpret this?


ScottReynolds View Post
Second, the lease fee for this particular system is in line with many similar type systems - that is, many cost in the neighborhood of a few hundred dollars per month. I'm not sure why you think such a system would be worth millions of dollars.

The simple fact is that all systems of this type are for the naive. None of them work. The fact that one company selling dubious systems to the gullible charges a similar rate to another does not make them work. The fact is thats the pricing is directly related to what the common man in the street can afford to pay. Most people can afford to pay $300-$500 a month. Get to $3000 a month and you will find very few wise people that can afford this and would actually fall for the scam. Price elasticity is what drives the price of these systems. The price is simply a price that fools will pay to be proved fools.

Now - let's say you had a hedge fund with $2 billion in it. How much do you think they would pay for a system that would make them 10% per month? A bit more than $300, right?

So why is the pricing of this system aimed at fools and not hedge funds with $2 billion? Perhaps an altruistic streak on the back of the vendor? Or perhaps the hedge fund would only buy a system that actually worked...


ScottReynolds View Post
Third, computer-driven, algorithmic systems are not new. It is a fact that such systems have been around for quite some time and some or many have been very profitable. Just to give one example - it is quite well known that John Henry, the owner of the Boston Red Sox, made a fortune from mechanical systems.

Correct - but how many of these are placing directional bets based on technical analysis? Why do you think that so much money has gone into co-location infrastrucure for HFT systems? Why are they front running pennies when they can just use technical analysis to predict the future direction of the market? Well - quite simply - the world of algos is not what you think it is. It is a world of arbitrage, not MA crossovers.

You don't actually know what the algos do, so you don't know how ludicrous this argument is.


ScottReynolds View Post
Finally, I still cannot "vouch" for the SMD product - I can just continue to evaluate like everyone else but to come out and dismiss the product simply because it is computer driven is just unacceptable.

Cool. Whilst you are at it - be sure to check the end of every rainbow you see because there might be a pot of gold at the end of one of them.

On the other hand, you could stop wasting money on pipe dreams and actually take responsibility for you own trading, then you will get somewhere.

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