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Buying stocks at monthly/weekly support


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Buying stocks at monthly/weekly support

  #1 (permalink)
 Blaster666 
Buenos Aires Argentina
 
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Does it make sense to buy stocks (over usd 10 billions market cap) on their monthly/weekly supports?

Would it offer an edge looking for a rebound? I mean, stocks with a good market cap and a decent daily volume of shares negotiated.

Here are some charts attached for you can see what I mean.

Thx.

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  #2 (permalink)
 
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 deaddog 
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Blaster666 View Post
Does it make sense to buy stocks (over usd 10 billions market cap) on their monthly/weekly supports?

Would it offer an edge looking for a rebound? I mean, stocks with a good market cap and a decent daily volume of shares negotiated.

Here are some charts attached for you can see what I mean.

Thx.

A little more info is needed.
Holding period
How are you controlling your risk

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 ThemBones 
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Please keep in mind: there is no sarcasm in the words I am writing below, and they are written with an honest sincerity of guidance.

What does your plan say? Buy stocks down 50% at support? Say this out loud. "I'm buying stocks down 50%."

If this is a new hypothesis, it's time to begin back-testing and forward-testing, first.

If this is a one-time gamble, your gut is enough.

My 10,000-kilometer limited view based on a chart snapshot is I would not touch these stocks. They are all awful charts. I'm guessing there are a bunch of bag-holders praying to Jesus for someone to get them out. Don't be that person.

The first chart ACI is bad - consolidating, tight, dead; and the last chart BBD is even worse with 3-years' worth of downward bleeding. The second chart BMY is rangy, overlapping garbage. If that V-recovery hadn't already happened at the end of 2021, you might be able to hope for a dead-cat bounce (don't ever hope, though) on the latest leg downward.

Keep an eye on them if you like, but remember, you don't need to be the first one in. Ask yourself, of all the stocks to trade, why these? Look for reasons not to trade them.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Blaster666 
Buenos Aires Argentina
 
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deaddog View Post
A little more info is needed.
Holding period
How are you controlling your risk

Holding period: Until it gets some % of profit (maybe 5%, %7) or it hits stoploss ...

Risk: tight stoploss ... when having % 5 of profit I adjust stop to breakeven

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  #5 (permalink)
 Blaster666 
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ThemBones View Post
Please keep in mind: there is no sarcasm in the words I am writing below, and they are written with an honest sincerity of guidance.

What does your plan say? Buy stocks down 50% at support? Say this out loud. "I'm buying stocks down 50%."

If this is a new hypothesis, it's time to begin back-testing and forward-testing, first.

If this is a one-time gamble, your gut is enough.

My 10,000-kilometer limited view based on a chart snapshot is I would not touch these stocks. They are all awful charts. I'm guessing there are a bunch of bag-holders praying to Jesus for someone to get them out. Don't be that person.

The first chart ACI is bad - consolidating, tight, dead; and the last chart BBD is even worse with 3-years' worth of downward bleeding. The second chart BMY is rangy, overlapping garbage. If that V-recovery hadn't already happened at the end of 2021, you might be able to hope for a dead-cat bounce (don't ever hope, though) on the latest leg downward.

Keep an eye on them if you like, but remember, you don't need to be the first one in. Ask yourself, of all the stocks to trade, why these? Look for reasons not to trade them.

My idea would be to put a % 3 or % 4 stoploss ... using a very low % of my capital

Being monthly support my guess is that these current prices were points of good rebounds in the past ... maybe % 20, % 30 or even % 60 ...

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 deaddog 
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Blaster666 View Post
Holding period: Until it gets some % of profit (maybe 5%, %7) or it hits stoploss ...

Risk: tight stoploss ... when having % 5 of profit I adjust stop to breakeven

Why are you considering monthly support? the percentage moves you are looking for sound like the kind of moves you want to see happen in a couple days.

Take a look at your exit strategy. When you say maybe, I have to assume you're not sure.
Do you have a written plan?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 ThemBones 
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Blaster666 View Post
My idea would be to put a % 3 or % 4 stoploss ... using a very low % of my capital

Being monthly support my guess is that these current prices were points of good rebounds in the past ... maybe % 20, % 30 or even % 60 ...

I think these are bad trades combined with untested methodology - the results of these sort of trades which work can cause more damage to your behavioral psychology and future account than good trades which don't work. These three trades will be rewarding bad behavior.

If you must trade them, use structure stops instead of percentage within your risk tolerance, and the market is clearly informing you the trade is not working. I don't know what size account you are using or how long you've been trading, but 3-4% risk is extremely aggressive, especially for trades you have no history of making. If all three trades fail, you are down up to 12%, plus commissions, plus slippage. If you're new, $5 per trade, but don't risk more than 1% if you insist on these trades.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Blaster666 
Buenos Aires Argentina
 
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deaddog View Post
Why are you considering monthly support? the percentage moves you are looking for sound like the kind of moves you want to see happen in a couple days.

Take a look at your exit strategy. When you say maybe, I have to assume you're not sure.
Do you have a written plan?

To make % 5 of profit not in a couple of days, but within a monh consustently would put me among the best stock traders in the history ...

I could look for growth stocks, forming high tight flags on a daily chart with some nice earnings and sales, looking to breakout for nice moves ... but currently that system does not work ... everyone is expectjng the breakouts, happening lots of stoploss hunting ...

These garbage stocks are slow, I think they are not considered by the "cool" can slim traders for example, and allow to put 3% of capital as stops ...

With over usd 10 bn of market cap and over 500 k shares negotiated daily there are low probabilities they could make gaps down like growth stocks do ..

I am thinking to add some heavy "lateral" etf's like ewz too ...

Always looking for heavy, slow assets which couldn't give me headaches nor fomo of buying ...

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  #9 (permalink)
 
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 deaddog 
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Blaster666 View Post
To make % 5 of profit not in a couple of days, but within a monh consustently would put me among the best stock traders in the history ...

I could look for growth stocks, forming high tight flags on a daily chart with some nice earnings and sales, looking to breakout for nice moves ... but currently that system does not work ... everyone is expectjng the breakouts, happening lots of stoploss hunting ...

These garbage stocks are slow, I think they are not considered by the "cool" can slim traders for example, and allow to put 3% of capital as stops ...

With over usd 10 bn of market cap and over 500 k shares negotiated daily there are low probabilities they could make gaps down like growth stocks do ..

I am thinking to add some heavy "lateral" etf's like ewz too ...

Always looking for heavy, slow assets which couldn't give me headaches nor fomo of buying ...

You are targeting 5 to 7% per trade and 5% stop. I doubt you'll make 5% a month on your account. How much are you willing to risk per trade? How many positions will you be holding in your portfolio?

If you are trading you will have losses and some will be bigger than you planned for.

You are looking to be comfortable with slow assets that won't give you a headache. I doubt that will happen as even the slow guys have bad weeks/months. I know my exits are getting triggered quite often lately.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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